Preston 2–1 Fulham: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fulham

D. Nugent 52'

S. Maguire 23'

A. Mitrović 81'

12/10/2019

Championship · Round 21Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Preston31%

×Draw27%

Fulham43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.38

Preston

1.13

Fulham

1.38

Fulham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 46 away

1.29

creates per match

1.54

1.22

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Preston

1.29

Fulham

1.54

allows per match

Preston

1.22

Fulham

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Preston+0.00on par

Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

57%

Preston or Fulham

73%

Draw or Fulham

69%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

12%

Fulham wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

68%

Preston 2+ goals

31%

Preston 3+ goals

11%

Fulham 1+ goals

75%

Fulham 2+ goals

40%

Fulham 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

42%

Fulham (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.22 · 181 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.29 + Fulham defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Fulham attack 1.54 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Preston scores more

31%

level

27%

Fulham scores more

43%

Fulham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Mitrović

Fulham · F

7.7

Match Events

23'

S. Maguire↳ A. Browne

28'

Denis Odoi

32'

J. Bryan← Ivan Cavaleiro

34'

45'

52'

60'

75'

75'

T. Barkhuizen← D. Nugent

76'

Paul Huntington

81'

A. Mitrović↳ N. Kebano

83'

Brad Potts

83'

T. Clarke← B. Pearson

84'

J. Harrop← B. Bodin

88'

Joshua Onomah

90+2'

L. de la Torre← A. Knockaert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonFulham

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots15

6Corners5

13Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots15

7On Target1

6Off Target7

6Blocked7

14Inside Box7

5Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

364Total Passes492

271Accurate Passes398

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls12

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1