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Fulham vs Preston — Championship 2018

Fulham
Fulham
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
A. Kamara 90+5'
D. Nugent 58' (OG)
2/29/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fulham52%
×Draw24%
Preston24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulham
1.70
Preston
1.08

Fulham creates 57% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 183 away

creates per match

Fulham
2.02
Preston
1.03

allows per match

Fulham
1.13
Preston
1.38

finishing

Fulham+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fulham or draw
76%
Fulham or Preston
76%
Draw or Preston
48%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+
28%
Preston wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals
82%
Fulham 2+ goals
51%
Fulham 3+ goals
24%
Preston 1+ goals
66%
Preston 2+ goals
29%
Preston 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)
68%
Preston (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.13 · 45 matches

Preston away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.38 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 2.02 + Preston defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.70

Preston attack 1.03 + Fulham defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fulham scores more
52%
level
24%
Preston scores more
24%

Fulham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. HectorFulhamFulham · D
7.5

Match Events

9'
C. Christie← J. Bryan
58'
D. NugentOwn goal
66'
J. Stockley← D. Nugent
72'
S. Sinclair← S. Maguire
78'
A. Kamara← A. Knockaert
83'
J. Harrop← B. Potts
90+1'
K. McDonald← H. Arter
90+5'
A. Kamara↳ Ivan Cavaleiro

Possession

55%Fulham

Shots

15Fulham

Pass accuracy

53%Fulham

Statistics

FulhamPreston
Overview
55%Possession45%
15Total Shots8
7Corners3
11Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots8
4On Target2
5Off Target2
6Blocked4
13Inside Box6
2Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
417Total Passes335
320Accurate Passes226
77%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls6
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Fulham vs Preston

Fulham beat Preston 2-0 in Championship on February 29, 2020.

Goals: D. Nugent (58' o.g.), A. Kamara (90+5').

Fulham controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Craven Cottage in London.