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Preston vs Derby — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
P. Agyemang 82'
1/17/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Preston39%
×Draw28%
Derby33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.23
Derby
1.10

Preston creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 45 away

creates per match

Preston
1.15
Derby
1.01

allows per match

Preston
1.20
Derby
1.32

finishing

Preston+0.04on par
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
67%
Preston or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
17%
Derby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
35%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Derby 1+ goals
67%
Derby 2+ goals
30%
Derby 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
54%
Derby (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 58 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.15 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Derby attack 1.01 + Preston defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more
39%
level
28%
Derby scores more
33%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
J. StoreyPrestonPreston · D
7.9

Match Events

38'
Bobby Clark
40'
David Ozoh
57'
Ben Brereton Díaz
58'
T. Small← J. Lewis
63'
Callum Elder
66'
Lewis Dobbin
67'
D. Jebbison← M. Osmajic
68'
P. Valentin← B. Potts
72'
O. Fraulo← R. Brewster
73'
L. Thompson← D. Ozoh
79'
J. Thompson← L. Dobbin
79'
M. Smith← A. McCann
82'
P. Agyemang↳ B. Brereton Diaz
87'
Jordan Thompson
87'
Liam Thompson
89'
A. Weimann← B. Clark
89'
L. Salvesen← P. Agyemang

Possession

51%Preston

Shots

13Preston

Pass accuracy

51%Preston

Statistics

PrestonDerby
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots18
0.99Expected Goals (xG)1.76
5Corners10
7Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots18
2On Target4
8Off Target8
3Blocked6
6Inside Box13
7Outside Box5
Passing
51%Possession49%
364Total Passes338
269Accurate Passes238
74%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
0.46Goals Prevented0.46
Discipline
7Fouls12
2Yellow Cards5
0Offsides2

Preston 0 – 1 Derby

Derby beat Preston 1-0 in Championship on January 17, 2026.

Goals: P. Agyemang (82').

Preston controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.