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Derby vs Preston — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Preston
Preston
R. Morrison 80'
4/2/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Derby46%
×Draw27%
Preston28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.43
Preston
1.05

Derby creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Derby
1.26
Preston
1.04

allows per match

Derby
1.06
Preston
1.59

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Preston+0.07on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Derby or draw
72%
Derby or Preston
73%
Draw or Preston
54%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
22%
Preston wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
76%
Derby 2+ goals
42%
Derby 3+ goals
17%
Preston 1+ goals
65%
Preston 2+ goals
28%
Preston 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
62%
Preston (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

Preston away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.26 + Preston defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Preston attack 1.04 + Derby defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Derby scores more
46%
level
27%
Preston scores more
28%

Derby at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
D. IversenPrestonPreston · G
8.9

Match Events

32'
Liam Lindsay
35'
S. van den Berg← E. Riis
55'
Max Bird
58'
K. Bielik← F. Ebosele
61'
Benjamin Whiteman
65'
S. Maguire← C. Evans
66'
Curtis Davies
68'
R. Morrison← M. Ebiowei
75'
J. Murphy← C. Archer
80'
R. Morrison↳ L. Plange
83'
Jason Knight
85'
R. Stearman← L. Plange
87'
Daniel Johnson

Possession

53%Derby

Shots

22Derby

Pass accuracy

52%Derby

Statistics

DerbyPreston
Overview
53%Possession47%
22Total Shots12
9Corners5
10Fouls10
Shots
22Total Shots12
12On Target1
7Off Target6
3Blocked5
12Inside Box9
10Outside Box3
Passing
53%Possession47%
396Total Passes351
318Accurate Passes256
80%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves11
Discipline
10Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards1
1Offsides5

Derby 1 – 0 Preston

Derby beat Preston 1-0 in Championship on April 2, 2022.

Goals: R. Morrison (80').

Derby controlled possession (53%) and registered 22 shots to 12.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.