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Preston vs Derby — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Derby
Derby
W. Rooney 18'
7/1/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Preston39%
×Draw28%
Derby32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.23
Derby
1.09

Preston creates 13% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 45 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Derby
1.01

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Derby
1.32

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
68%
Preston or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
17%
Derby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
35%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Derby 1+ goals
66%
Derby 2+ goals
30%
Derby 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
55%
Derby (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Derby attack 1.01 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more
39%
level
28%
Derby scores more
32%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
W. RooneyDerbyDerby · M
7.7

Match Events

18'
W. Rooney
60'
S. Maguire← D. Nugent
65'
C. Martin← D. Holmes
65'
C. Forsyth← J. Bogle
65'
G. Shinnie← L. Sibley
73'
J. Harrop← P. Gallagher
73'
T. Barkhuizen← S. Sinclair
77'
J. Stockley← B. Pearson
83'
C. Davies← G. Evans
90+3'
S. Malone← W. Rooney

Possession

54%Preston

Shots

9Preston

Pass accuracy

51%Preston

Statistics

PrestonDerby
Overview
54%Possession46%
9Total Shots8
7Corners5
10Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots8
1On Target3
6Off Target4
2Blocked1
5Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
506Total Passes426
420Accurate Passes343
83%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls11

Preston 0 – 1 Derby

Derby beat Preston 1-0 in Championship on July 1, 2020.

Goals: W. Rooney (18').

Preston controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.