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Preston vs Coventry — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
D. Jebbison 76'
A. Hughes 70' (OG)
12/9/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Preston28%
×Draw27%
Coventry45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.05
Coventry
1.39

Coventry creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Preston
0.86
Coventry
1.43

allows per match

Preston
1.34
Coventry
1.25

finishing

Preston+0.30scores more
Coventry+0.27scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
55%
Preston or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
72%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
11%
Coventry wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
65%
Preston 2+ goals
28%
Preston 3+ goals
9%
Coventry 1+ goals
75%
Coventry 2+ goals
40%
Coventry 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
39%
Coventry (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.34 · 19 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.86 + Coventry defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Coventry attack 1.43 + Preston defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preston scores more
28%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
45%

Coventry at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. IversenPrestonPreston · G
9.3

Match Events

31'
V. Torp← J. Eccles
39'
Liam Lindsay
43'
Daniel Jebbison
43'
P. Valentin← L. Dobbin
46'
E. Mason-Clark← L. Woolfenden
70'
A. HughesOwn goal
75'
A. Devine← H. Armstrong
75'
S. T. Thordarson← J. Thompson
75'
M. Smith← T. Small
76'
D. Jebbison↳ P. Valentin
79'
E. Simms← H. Wright
90+2'
A. Vukcevic← D. Jebbison

Possession

31%Preston

Shots

6Preston

Pass accuracy

43%Preston

Statistics

PrestonCoventry
Overview
31%Possession69%
6Total Shots21
0.29Expected Goals (xG)1.95
4Corners8
9Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots21
2On Target5
1Off Target10
3Blocked6
5Inside Box12
1Outside Box9
Passing
31%Possession69%
214Total Passes464
135Accurate Passes394
63%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
-0.18Goals Prevented-0.18
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
3Offsides7

Championship: Preston 1–1 Coventry

Preston and Coventry drew 1-1 in Championship on December 9, 2025.

Goals: A. Hughes (70' o.g.), D. Jebbison (76').

Coventry controlled possession (69%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.