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Preston vs Coventry — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
E. Riis 72'
10/19/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Preston34%
×Draw27%
Coventry39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.18
Coventry
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 13 away

creates per match

Preston
1.12
Coventry
1.32

allows per match

Preston
1.22
Coventry
1.23

finishing

Preston+0.13scores more
Coventry+0.14scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
61%
Preston or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
66%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
14%
Coventry wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
69%
Preston 2+ goals
33%
Preston 3+ goals
12%
Coventry 1+ goals
72%
Coventry 2+ goals
36%
Coventry 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
47%
Coventry (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.22 · 32 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.12 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Coventry attack 1.32 + Preston defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more
34%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
39%

Coventry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
R. BradyPrestonPreston · M
8.0

Match Events

4'
Ryan Ledson
39'
Emil Riis Jacobsen
48'
Andrew Hughes
60'
S. Greenwood← R. Ledson
64'
B. Thomas-Asante← N. Bassette
64'
H. Wright← E. Simms
68'
D. Holmes← S. Þórðarson
72'
E. Riis↳ R. Brady
79'
V. Torp← J. Rudoni
79'
T. Sakamoto← M. van Ewijk
84'
Freddie Woodman

Possession

51%Preston

Shots

18Preston

Pass accuracy

50%Preston

Statistics

PrestonCoventry
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots12
2.02Expected Goals (xG)0.94
9Corners9
12Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots12
3On Target1
6Off Target8
9Blocked3
14Inside Box6
4Outside Box6
Passing
51%Possession49%
384Total Passes367
305Accurate Passes287
79%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
0.45Goals Prevented0.45
Discipline
12Fouls12
4Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Championship: Preston 1–0 Coventry

Preston beat Coventry 1-0 in Championship on October 19, 2024.

Goals: E. Riis (72').

Preston controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.