Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Preston vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Coventry
Coventry
11/4/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Preston29%
×Draw27%
Coventry43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.07
Coventry
1.36

Coventry creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 19 away

creates per match

Preston
1.01
Coventry
1.45

allows per match

Preston
1.28
Coventry
1.14

finishing

Preston+0.19scores more
Coventry-0.08on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
57%
Preston or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
71%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
11%
Coventry wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
66%
Preston 2+ goals
29%
Preston 3+ goals
9%
Coventry 1+ goals
74%
Coventry 2+ goals
39%
Coventry 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
40%
Coventry (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.28 · 40 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.14 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.01 + Coventry defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Coventry attack 1.45 + Preston defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Preston scores more
29%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
43%

Coventry at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Preston 3–2 Coventry

Preston beat Coventry 3-2 in Championship on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.