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Preston vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
2/28/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 29Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Preston33%
×Draw27%
Coventry40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.19
Coventry
1.32

Coventry creates 11% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

creates per match

Preston
1.16
Coventry
1.47

allows per match

Preston
1.18
Coventry
1.23

finishing

Preston+0.06on par
Coventry+0.06on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw
60%
Preston or Coventry
73%
Draw or Coventry
67%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
14%
Coventry wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
70%
Preston 2+ goals
33%
Preston 3+ goals
12%
Coventry 1+ goals
73%
Coventry 2+ goals
38%
Coventry 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
46%
Coventry (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.16 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Coventry attack 1.47 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preston scores more
33%
level
27%
Coventry scores more
40%

Coventry at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
R. LedsonPrestonPreston · M
7.9

Match Events

46'
J. Wilson-Esbrand← J. Allen
47'
Callum Doyle
61'
Liam Lindsay
63'
M. Rose← C. Doyle
63'
J. Burroughs← B. Norton-Cuffy
63'
T. Walker← M. Godden
74'
L. Delap← C. Evans
74'
T. Parrott← T. Cannon
78'
Josh Eccles
84'
B. Woodburn← A. Browne
90+5'
Viktor Gyökeres
90'
Gustavo Hamer
90+2'
J. Onomah← D. Johnson

Possession

50%Preston

Shots

13Preston

Pass accuracy

49%Preston

Statistics

PrestonCoventry
Overview
50%Possession50%
13Total Shots11
4Corners2
10Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots11
2On Target4
6Off Target4
5Blocked3
9Inside Box4
4Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
371Total Passes371
243Accurate Passes248
65%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards4
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Preston vs Coventry

Preston and Coventry drew 0-0 in Championship on February 28, 2023.

Preston controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.