Preston 2–1 Coventry: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Coventry

E. Riis 69'

P. Bauer 61'

T. Walker 45'

10/20/2021

Championship · Round 13Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Preston34%

×Draw27%

Coventry39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.30

Preston

1.18

Coventry

1.30

Coventry creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 58 away

1.14

creates per match

1.44

1.17

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Preston

1.14

Coventry

1.44

allows per match

Preston

1.17

Coventry

1.22

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Preston+0.07on par

Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Preston or draw

61%

Preston or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

66%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

14%

Coventry wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

69%

Preston 2+ goals

33%

Preston 3+ goals

12%

Coventry 1+ goals

73%

Coventry 2+ goals

37%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

46%

Coventry (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Coventry attack 1.44 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more

34%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

39%

Coventry at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Whiteman

Preston · M

8.3

Match Events

23'

45'

50'

51'

61'

P. Bauer↳ B. Whiteman

69'

E. Riis↳ A. Browne

74'

M. Waghorn← V. Gyökeres

75'

J. Allen← C. OHare

75'

B. Sheaf← L. Kelly

79'

T. Barkhuizen← S. Sinclair

80'

B. Potts← D. Johnson

86'

J. Murphy← E. Riis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonCoventry

Overview

50%Possession50%

16Total Shots8

9Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots8

4On Target3

3Off Target2

9Blocked3

9Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

426Total Passes443

320Accurate Passes327

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides5