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Preston Lions vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Preston Lions
Preston Lions
FT
0 – 2
Kingston City
Kingston City
7/14/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 22B.T. Connor Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Preston Lions45%
×Draw22%
Kingston City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston Lions
1.89
Kingston City
1.58

Preston Lions creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 57 away

creates per match

Preston Lions
1.62
Kingston City
1.74

allows per match

Preston Lions
1.42
Kingston City
2.16

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw
67%
Preston Lions or Kingston City
78%
Draw or Kingston City
55%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+
25%
Kingston City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals
85%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
56%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
29%
Kingston City 1+ goals
79%
Kingston City 2+ goals
47%
Kingston City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)
58%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Preston Lions defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preston Lions scores more
45%
level
22%
Kingston City scores more
33%

Preston Lions at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Preston Lions 0–2 Kingston City

Kingston City beat Preston Lions 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 14, 2023.

The match was played at B.T. Connor Reserve in Melbourne.