Kingston City 1–2 Preston Lions: Result & Stats

Kingston City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Preston Lions

6/17/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kingston City30%

×Draw22%

Preston Lions48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kingston CityExpected goals in this matchPreston Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.97

Kingston City

1.54

Preston Lions

1.97

Preston Lions creates 28% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 26 away

1.61

creates per match

1.85

2.09

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Kingston City

1.61

Preston Lions

1.85

allows per match

Kingston City

2.09

Preston Lions

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par

Preston Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Preston Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw

52%

Kingston City or Preston Lions

78%

Draw or Preston Lions

70%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+

14%

Preston Lions wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals

79%

Kingston City 2+ goals

45%

Kingston City 3+ goals

20%

Preston Lions 1+ goals

86%

Preston Lions 2+ goals

58%

Preston Lions 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)

39%

Preston Lions (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Preston Lions away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Preston Lions defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Preston Lions attack 1.85 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kingston City scores more

30%

level

22%

Preston Lions scores more

48%

Preston Lions at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff