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Preston Lions vs Eastern Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Preston Lions
Preston Lions
FT
1 – 2
Eastern Lions
Eastern Lions
5/5/2023Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 12B.T. Connor Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Preston Lions50%
×Draw23%
Eastern Lions27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston Lions
1.86
Eastern Lions
1.31

Preston Lions creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 39 away

creates per match

Preston Lions
1.62
Eastern Lions
1.21

allows per match

Preston Lions
1.42
Eastern Lions
2.10

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par
Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Eastern Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw
73%
Preston Lions or Eastern Lions
77%
Draw or Eastern Lions
50%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+
28%
Eastern Lions wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals
84%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
55%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
28%
Eastern Lions 1+ goals
73%
Eastern Lions 2+ goals
38%
Eastern Lions 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)
65%
Eastern Lions (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Eastern Lions away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.10 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Eastern Lions defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.86

Eastern Lions attack 1.21 + Preston Lions defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Preston Lions scores more
50%
level
23%
Eastern Lions scores more
27%

Preston Lions at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Preston Lions 1–2 Eastern Lions

Eastern Lions beat Preston Lions 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at B.T. Connor Reserve in Melbourne.