Eastern Lions 2–1 Preston Lions: Result & Stats

Eastern Lions

FT

2 – 1

Preston Lions

8/12/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 25Gardiners Creek Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eastern Lions33%

×Draw23%

Preston Lions44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eastern LionsExpected goals in this matchPreston Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.74

Eastern Lions

1.48

Preston Lions

1.74

Preston Lions creates 18% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 26 away

1.49

creates per match

1.85

1.62

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Eastern Lions

1.49

Preston Lions

1.85

allows per match

Eastern Lions

1.62

Preston Lions

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Preston Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eastern Lions ↓

Preston Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Eastern Lions or draw

56%

Eastern Lions or Preston Lions

77%

Draw or Preston Lions

67%

Winning margin

Eastern Lions wins by 2+

15%

Preston Lions wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Eastern Lions 1+ goals

77%

Eastern Lions 2+ goals

43%

Eastern Lions 3+ goals

19%

Preston Lions 1+ goals

82%

Preston Lions 2+ goals

52%

Preston Lions 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Eastern Lions (draw refunded)

43%

Preston Lions (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eastern Lions at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

Preston Lions away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eastern Lions attack 1.49 + Preston Lions defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Preston Lions attack 1.85 + Eastern Lions defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eastern Lions scores more

33%

level

23%

Preston Lions scores more

44%

Preston Lions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff