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Preston Lions vs Avondale — Victoria NPL 2026

Preston Lions
Preston Lions
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avondale
Avondale
3/20/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 6Genis Steel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Preston Lions35%
×Draw25%
Avondale41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston Lions
1.40
Avondale
1.54

Avondale creates 10% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 87 away

creates per match

Preston Lions
1.62
Avondale
2.22

allows per match

Preston Lions
0.86
Avondale
1.17

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par
Avondale+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Avondale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw
59%
Preston Lions or Avondale
75%
Draw or Avondale
65%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+
16%
Avondale wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals
75%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
41%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
17%
Avondale 1+ goals
79%
Avondale 2+ goals
45%
Avondale 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)
46%
Avondale (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Avondale away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.17 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Avondale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Avondale attack 2.22 + Preston Lions defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preston Lions scores more
35%
level
25%
Avondale scores more
41%

Avondale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Preston Lions 2–1 Avondale

Preston Lions beat Avondale 2-1 in Victoria NPL on March 20, 2026.

The match was played at Genis Steel Stadium in Melbourne.