Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Avondale vs Preston Lions — Victoria NPL 2026

Avondale
Avondale
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Preston Lions
Preston Lions
3/15/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 6Avenger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Avondale53%
×Draw22%
Preston Lions25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avondale
1.92
Preston Lions
1.26

Avondale creates 52% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 26 away

creates per match

Avondale
2.71
Preston Lions
1.50

allows per match

Avondale
1.02
Preston Lions
1.12

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par
Preston Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Preston Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Avondale or draw
75%
Avondale or Preston Lions
78%
Draw or Preston Lions
47%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+
30%
Preston Lions wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals
85%
Avondale 2+ goals
57%
Avondale 3+ goals
30%
Preston Lions 1+ goals
72%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
36%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)
68%
Preston Lions (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Preston Lions away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Preston Lions defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.92

Preston Lions attack 1.50 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Avondale scores more
53%
level
22%
Preston Lions scores more
25%

Avondale at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avondale vs Preston Lions

Avondale beat Preston Lions 3-1 in Victoria NPL on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Avenger Park in Melbourne.