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Přeštice vs Motorlet Praha — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
CANC
14:00
Motorlet Praha
Motorlet Praha
10/12/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 10Stadion FC Viktoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Přeštice49%
×Draw22%
Motorlet Praha28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
1.91
Motorlet Praha
1.40

Přeštice creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 84 away

creates per match

Přeštice
2.27
Motorlet Praha
1.30

allows per match

Přeštice
1.50
Motorlet Praha
1.54

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Motorlet Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Motorlet Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
72%
Přeštice or Motorlet Praha
78%
Draw or Motorlet Praha
51%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
28%
Motorlet Praha wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
85%
Přeštice 2+ goals
57%
Přeštice 3+ goals
30%
Motorlet Praha 1+ goals
75%
Motorlet Praha 2+ goals
41%
Motorlet Praha 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
64%
Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Motorlet Praha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.54 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 2.27 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.91

Motorlet Praha attack 1.30 + Přeštice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Přeštice scores more
49%
level
22%
Motorlet Praha scores more
28%

Přeštice at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Přeštice face Motorlet Praha (3. liga - CFL A)

3. liga - CFL A returns with Přeštice hosting Motorlet Praha. Match starts October 12, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Přeštice host Motorlet Praha at Stadion FC Viktoria.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.