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Motorlet Praha vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Motorlet Praha
Motorlet Praha
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Přeštice
Přeštice
11/11/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 15Hřiště SK Motorlet UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Motorlet Praha48%
×Draw24%
Přeštice28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motorlet Praha
1.73
Přeštice
1.28

Motorlet Praha creates 35% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 30 away

creates per match

Motorlet Praha
1.54
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Motorlet Praha
1.39
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Motorlet Praha+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motorlet Praha ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Motorlet Praha or draw
72%
Motorlet Praha or Přeštice
76%
Draw or Přeštice
52%

Winning margin

Motorlet Praha wins by 2+
26%
Přeštice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Motorlet Praha 1+ goals
82%
Motorlet Praha 2+ goals
52%
Motorlet Praha 3+ goals
25%
Přeštice 1+ goals
72%
Přeštice 2+ goals
37%
Přeštice 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)
63%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motorlet Praha at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motorlet Praha attack 1.54 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Motorlet Praha scores more
48%
level
24%
Přeštice scores more
28%

Motorlet Praha at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Motorlet Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motorlet Praha vs Přeštice

Přeštice beat Motorlet Praha 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL A on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště SK Motorlet UMT in Praha.