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Přeštice vs Karlovy Vary — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Karlovy Vary
Karlovy Vary
5/25/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 28Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Přeštice55%
×Draw21%
Karlovy Vary24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.04
Karlovy Vary
1.28

Přeštice creates 59% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 52 away

creates per match

Přeštice
2.27
Karlovy Vary
1.06

allows per match

Přeštice
1.50
Karlovy Vary
1.81

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Karlovy Vary+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Karlovy Vary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
76%
Přeštice or Karlovy Vary
79%
Draw or Karlovy Vary
45%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
32%
Karlovy Vary wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
87%
Přeštice 2+ goals
60%
Přeštice 3+ goals
33%
Karlovy Vary 1+ goals
72%
Karlovy Vary 2+ goals
37%
Karlovy Vary 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
70%
Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Karlovy Vary away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 2.27 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.04

Karlovy Vary attack 1.06 + Přeštice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Přeštice scores more
55%
level
21%
Karlovy Vary scores more
24%

Přeštice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Přeštice vs Karlovy Vary

Přeštice and Karlovy Vary drew 1-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice in Přeštice.