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Karlovy Vary vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Karlovy Vary
Karlovy Vary
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Přeštice
Přeštice
6/3/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 29Drahovice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Karlovy Vary47%
×Draw23%
Přeštice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Karlovy Vary
1.79
Přeštice
1.40

Karlovy Vary creates 28% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 30 away

creates per match

Karlovy Vary
1.65
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Karlovy Vary
1.63
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Karlovy Vary+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karlovy Vary ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Karlovy Vary or draw
70%
Karlovy Vary or Přeštice
77%
Draw or Přeštice
53%

Winning margin

Karlovy Vary wins by 2+
25%
Přeštice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Karlovy Vary 1+ goals
83%
Karlovy Vary 2+ goals
53%
Karlovy Vary 3+ goals
26%
Přeštice 1+ goals
75%
Přeštice 2+ goals
41%
Přeštice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)
61%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karlovy Vary at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.63 · 54 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karlovy Vary attack 1.65 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.79

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Karlovy Vary scores more
47%
level
23%
Přeštice scores more
30%

Karlovy Vary at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Karlovy Vary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Karlovy Vary 3–1 Přeštice

Karlovy Vary beat Přeštice 3-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Drahovice UMT in Karlovy Vary.