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Přeštice vs Jiskra Domažlice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Jiskra Domažlice
Jiskra Domažlice
9/3/20223. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 5Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Přeštice43%
×Draw23%
Jiskra Domažlice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
1.76
Jiskra Domažlice
1.56

Přeštice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 85 away

creates per match

Přeštice
2.27
Jiskra Domažlice
1.61

allows per match

Přeštice
1.50
Jiskra Domažlice
1.25

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Jiskra Domažlice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Jiskra Domažlice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
66%
Přeštice or Jiskra Domažlice
77%
Draw or Jiskra Domažlice
57%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
22%
Jiskra Domažlice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
83%
Přeštice 2+ goals
52%
Přeštice 3+ goals
26%
Jiskra Domažlice 1+ goals
79%
Jiskra Domažlice 2+ goals
46%
Jiskra Domažlice 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
55%
Jiskra Domažlice (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Jiskra Domažlice away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 2.27 + Jiskra Domažlice defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.76

Jiskra Domažlice attack 1.61 + Přeštice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Přeštice scores more
43%
level
23%
Jiskra Domažlice scores more
34%

Přeštice at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Přeštice vs Jiskra Domažlice

Přeštice beat Jiskra Domažlice 5-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice in Přeštice.