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Přeštice vs Hvězda Cheb — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
CANC
08:15
Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
5/1/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 22Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Přeštice78%
×Draw13%
Hvězda Cheb8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.90
Hvězda Cheb
0.86

Přeštice creates 237% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
Hvězda Cheb
1.14

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
Hvězda Cheb
2.79

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Hvězda Cheb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
92%
Přeštice or Hvězda Cheb
87%
Draw or Hvězda Cheb
22%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
58%
Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
94%
Přeštice 2+ goals
78%
Přeštice 3+ goals
54%
Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
58%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
21%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
90%
Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Hvězda Cheb defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.90

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.14 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Přeštice scores more
78%
level
13%
Hvězda Cheb scores more
8%

Přeštice at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Přeštice host Hvězda Cheb

May 1, 2021: Přeštice take on Hvězda Cheb in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Přeštice host Hvězda Cheb at Stadion Přeštice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.