Hvězda Cheb 0–2 Přeštice: Result & Stats

Hvězda Cheb

FT

0 – 2

Přeštice

10/3/2020

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 7Stadion Lokomotiva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hvězda Cheb18%

×Draw19%

Přeštice64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hvězda ChebExpected goals in this matchPřeštice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

2.40

Hvězda Cheb

1.19

Přeštice

2.40

Přeštice creates 102% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.50

creates per match

3.04

1.75

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Hvězda Cheb

1.50

Přeštice

3.04

allows per match

Hvězda Cheb

1.75

Přeštice

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hvězda Cheb ↓

Přeštice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hvězda Cheb or draw

36%

Hvězda Cheb or Přeštice

81%

Draw or Přeštice

82%

Winning margin

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+

7%

Přeštice wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals

70%

Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals

33%

Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals

12%

Přeštice 1+ goals

91%

Přeštice 2+ goals

69%

Přeštice 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)

22%

Přeštice (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hvězda Cheb at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.50 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Hvězda Cheb defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hvězda Cheb scores more

18%

level

19%

Přeštice scores more

64%

Přeštice at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff