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Přeštice vs Dukla Praha II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
4/8/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 21Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Přeštice47%
×Draw22%
Dukla Praha II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
1.98
Dukla Praha II
1.59

Přeštice creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 61 away

creates per match

Přeštice
2.27
Dukla Praha II
1.69

allows per match

Přeštice
1.50
Dukla Praha II
1.69

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Dukla Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Dukla Praha II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
69%
Přeštice or Dukla Praha II
78%
Draw or Dukla Praha II
53%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
26%
Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
86%
Přeštice 2+ goals
59%
Přeštice 3+ goals
31%
Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
80%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
47%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
60%
Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Dukla Praha II away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.69 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 2.27 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dukla Praha II attack 1.69 + Přeštice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Přeštice scores more
47%
level
22%
Dukla Praha II scores more
31%

Přeštice at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Přeštice 1–4 Dukla Praha II

Dukla Praha II beat Přeštice 4-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice in Přeštice.