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Dukla Praha II vs Přeštice — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Dukla Praha II
Dukla Praha II
CANC
12:30
Přeštice
Přeštice
11/16/20243. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 15Sportovní centrum Radotín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dukla Praha II47%
×Draw23%
Přeštice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha II
1.77
Přeštice
1.38

Dukla Praha II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha II
1.62
Přeštice
1.17

allows per match

Dukla Praha II
1.59
Přeštice
1.93

finishing

Dukla Praha II+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha II ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dukla Praha II or draw
70%
Dukla Praha II or Přeštice
77%
Draw or Přeštice
53%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha II wins by 2+
25%
Přeštice wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dukla Praha II 1+ goals
83%
Dukla Praha II 2+ goals
53%
Dukla Praha II 3+ goals
26%
Přeštice 1+ goals
75%
Přeštice 2+ goals
40%
Přeštice 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha II (draw refunded)
61%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha II attack 1.62 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Dukla Praha II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dukla Praha II scores more
47%
level
23%
Přeštice scores more
30%

Dukla Praha II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dukla Praha II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dukla Praha II face Přeštice (3. liga - CFL A)

3. liga - CFL A returns with Dukla Praha II hosting Přeštice. Match starts November 16, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dukla Praha II host Přeštice at Sportovní centrum Radotín.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.