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Přeštice vs Český lev - Union Beroun — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
3/26/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 18Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Přeštice83%
×Draw11%
Český lev - Union Beroun6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
3.00
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.68

Přeštice creates 341% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.76

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
Český lev - Union Beroun
3.00

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
94%
Přeštice or Český lev - Union Beroun
89%
Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun
17%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
64%
Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
95%
Přeštice 2+ goals
79%
Přeštice 3+ goals
56%
Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
49%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
15%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
94%
Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Přeštice scores more
83%
level
11%
Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
6%

Přeštice at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Přeštice 3–0 Český lev - Union Beroun

Přeštice beat Český lev - Union Beroun 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice in Přeštice.