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Český lev - Union Beroun vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
FT
1 – 4
Přeštice
Přeštice
8/14/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 3Fotbalové hřiště Beroun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Český lev - Union Beroun14%
×Draw17%
Přeštice69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.08
Přeštice
2.54

Přeštice creates 135% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
1.29
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

Český lev - Union Beroun
2.04
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Český lev - Union Beroun ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Český lev - Union Beroun or draw
31%
Český lev - Union Beroun or Přeštice
83%
Draw or Přeštice
86%

Winning margin

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
5%
Přeštice wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
66%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
29%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
10%
Přeštice 1+ goals
92%
Přeštice 2+ goals
72%
Přeštice 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
17%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Český lev - Union Beroun at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 1.29 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.08

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
14%
level
17%
Přeštice scores more
69%

Přeštice at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Český lev - Union Beroun 1–4 Přeštice

Přeštice beat Český lev - Union Beroun 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Fotbalové hřiště Beroun in Beroun.