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Přeštice vs Baník Sokolov — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Baník Sokolov
Baník Sokolov
9/17/20223. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 7Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Přeštice65%
×Draw18%
Baník Sokolov17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.40
Baník Sokolov
1.15

Přeštice creates 109% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

creates per match

Přeštice
2.27
Baník Sokolov
0.79

allows per match

Přeštice
1.50
Baník Sokolov
2.52

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
Baník Sokolov+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

Baník Sokolov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
83%
Přeštice or Baník Sokolov
82%
Draw or Baník Sokolov
35%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
42%
Baník Sokolov wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
91%
Přeštice 2+ goals
69%
Přeštice 3+ goals
42%
Baník Sokolov 1+ goals
68%
Baník Sokolov 2+ goals
32%
Baník Sokolov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
79%
Baník Sokolov (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

Baník Sokolov away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 2.27 + Baník Sokolov defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.40

Baník Sokolov attack 0.79 + Přeštice defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Přeštice scores more
65%
level
18%
Baník Sokolov scores more
17%

Přeštice at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Přeštice 0–2 Baník Sokolov

Baník Sokolov beat Přeštice 2-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Přeštice in Přeštice.