Baník Sokolov 1–0 Přeštice: Result & Stats

Baník Sokolov

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Přeštice

4/15/2023

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 22Stadion FK Baník Sokolov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baník Sokolov40%

×Draw24%

Přeštice36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník SokolovExpected goals in this matchPřeštice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.54

Baník Sokolov

1.64

Přeštice

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

1.34

creates per match

1.17

1.91

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Baník Sokolov

1.34

Přeštice

1.17

allows per match

Baník Sokolov

1.91

Přeštice

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Sokolov+0.00on par

Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Sokolov ↓

Přeštice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Baník Sokolov or draw

64%

Baník Sokolov or Přeštice

76%

Draw or Přeštice

60%

Winning margin

Baník Sokolov wins by 2+

20%

Přeštice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Baník Sokolov 1+ goals

81%

Baník Sokolov 2+ goals

49%

Baník Sokolov 3+ goals

23%

Přeštice 1+ goals

79%

Přeštice 2+ goals

45%

Přeštice 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Baník Sokolov (draw refunded)

53%

Přeštice (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Sokolov at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Sokolov attack 1.34 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Baník Sokolov defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baník Sokolov scores more

40%

level

24%

Přeštice scores more

36%

Baník Sokolov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baník Sokolov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff