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Prespa Birlik vs Asarum — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Prespa Birlik
Prespa Birlik
FT
0 – 1
Asarum
Asarum
6/19/2021Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Östra Götaland - 11Heleneholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Prespa Birlik38%
×Draw21%
Asarum41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prespa Birlik
1.90
Asarum
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 47 away

creates per match

Prespa Birlik
1.64
Asarum
1.51

allows per match

Prespa Birlik
2.50
Asarum
2.17

finishing

Prespa Birlik+0.00on par
Asarum+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prespa Birlik ↓

Asarum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Prespa Birlik or draw
59%
Prespa Birlik or Asarum
79%
Draw or Asarum
62%

Winning margin

Prespa Birlik wins by 2+
20%
Asarum wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Prespa Birlik 1+ goals
85%
Prespa Birlik 2+ goals
56%
Prespa Birlik 3+ goals
29%
Asarum 1+ goals
86%
Asarum 2+ goals
59%
Asarum 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Prespa Birlik (draw refunded)
48%
Asarum (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prespa Birlik at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Asarum away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.17 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prespa Birlik attack 1.64 + Asarum defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.90

Asarum attack 1.51 + Prespa Birlik defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Prespa Birlik scores more
38%
level
21%
Asarum scores more
41%

Asarum at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Asarum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Prespa Birlik 0–1 Asarum

Asarum beat Prespa Birlik 1-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Heleneholms IP in Malmö.