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Asarum vs Prespa Birlik — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Asarum
Asarum
FT
4 – 1
Prespa Birlik
Prespa Birlik
10/2/2021Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Östra Götaland - 27Asarums IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Asarum63%
×Draw19%
Prespa Birlik19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asarum
2.42
Prespa Birlik
1.26

Asarum creates 92% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 14 away

creates per match

Asarum
1.48
Prespa Birlik
0.36

allows per match

Asarum
2.17
Prespa Birlik
3.36

finishing

Asarum+0.00on par
Prespa Birlik+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asarum ↓

Prespa Birlik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Asarum or draw
81%
Asarum or Prespa Birlik
81%
Draw or Prespa Birlik
37%

Winning margin

Asarum wins by 2+
41%
Prespa Birlik wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Asarum 1+ goals
91%
Asarum 2+ goals
69%
Asarum 3+ goals
43%
Prespa Birlik 1+ goals
72%
Prespa Birlik 2+ goals
36%
Prespa Birlik 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Asarum (draw refunded)
77%
Prespa Birlik (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asarum at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

Prespa Birlik away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asarum attack 1.48 + Prespa Birlik defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.42

Prespa Birlik attack 0.36 + Asarum defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Asarum scores more
63%
level
19%
Prespa Birlik scores more
19%

Asarum at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Asarum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asarum vs Prespa Birlik

Asarum beat Prespa Birlik 4-1 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Asarums IP in Asarum.