Presidente Prudente U20 0–2 Marília U20

Presidente Prudente U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Marília U20

5/31/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Paulo Constantino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Presidente Prudente U2027%

×Draw25%

Marília U2048%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Presidente Prudente U20Expected goals in this matchMarília U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.61

Presidente Prudente U20

1.13

Marília U20

1.61

Marília U20 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.63

1.60

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Presidente Prudente U20

1.00

Marília U20

1.63

allows per match

Presidente Prudente U20

1.60

Marília U20

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Presidente Prudente U20+0.00on par

Marília U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Presidente Prudente U20 ↓

Marília U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Presidente Prudente U20 or draw

52%

Presidente Prudente U20 or Marília U20

75%

Draw or Marília U20

73%

Winning margin

Presidente Prudente U20 wins by 2+

10%

Marília U20 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Presidente Prudente U20 1+ goals

68%

Presidente Prudente U20 2+ goals

31%

Presidente Prudente U20 3+ goals

11%

Marília U20 1+ goals

80%

Marília U20 2+ goals

48%

Marília U20 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Presidente Prudente U20 (draw refunded)

36%

Marília U20 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Presidente Prudente U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Marília U20 away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Presidente Prudente U20 attack 1.00 + Marília U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Marília U20 attack 1.63 + Presidente Prudente U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Presidente Prudente U20 scores more

27%

level

25%

Marília U20 scores more

48%

Marília U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Marília U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Presidente Prudente U20 0–2 Marília U20

Marília U20 beat Presidente Prudente U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Paulo Constantino in Presidente Prudente, São Paulo.

Presidente Prudente U20 vs Marília U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Paulista - U20: Presidente Prudente U20 0–2 Marília U20