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Marília U20 vs Presidente Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Marília U20
Marília U20
FT
2 – 3
Presidente Prudente U20
Presidente Prudente U20
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Marília U2044%
×Draw21%
Presidente Prudente U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marília U20
2.12
Presidente Prudente U20
1.88

Marília U20 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Marília U20
1.63
Presidente Prudente U20
2.00

allows per match

Marília U20
1.75
Presidente Prudente U20
2.60

finishing

Marília U20+0.00on par
Presidente Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 76Under: 2476%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 74No: 2674%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marília U20 ↓

Presidente Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Marília U20 or draw
65%
Marília U20 or Presidente Prudente U20
79%
Draw or Presidente Prudente U20
56%

Winning margin

Marília U20 wins by 2+
25%
Presidente Prudente U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Marília U20 1+ goals
88%
Marília U20 2+ goals
62%
Marília U20 3+ goals
35%
Presidente Prudente U20 1+ goals
85%
Presidente Prudente U20 2+ goals
56%
Presidente Prudente U20 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Marília U20 (draw refunded)
56%
Presidente Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marília U20 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Presidente Prudente U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marília U20 attack 1.63 + Presidente Prudente U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.12

Presidente Prudente U20 attack 2.00 + Marília U20 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Marília U20 scores more
44%
level
21%
Presidente Prudente U20 scores more
35%

Marília U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Marília U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Marília U20 2–3 Presidente Prudente U20

Presidente Prudente U20 beat Marília U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Bento de Abreu Sampaio Vidal in Marília, São Paulo.