Přepeře 3–1 Jablonec II: Result & Stats

Přepeře

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jablonec II

6/1/2024

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 29Hřiště FK Přepeře

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Přepeře44%

×Draw24%

Jablonec II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PřepeřeExpected goals in this matchJablonec II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.38

Přepeře

1.64

Jablonec II

1.38

Přepeře creates 19% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 81 away

1.76

creates per match

1.26

1.49

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Přepeře

1.76

Jablonec II

1.26

allows per match

Přepeře

1.49

Jablonec II

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Přepeře+0.00on par

Jablonec II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přepeře ↓

Jablonec II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Přepeře or draw

68%

Přepeře or Jablonec II

76%

Draw or Jablonec II

56%

Winning margin

Přepeře wins by 2+

22%

Jablonec II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Přepeře 1+ goals

81%

Přepeře 2+ goals

49%

Přepeře 3+ goals

23%

Jablonec II 1+ goals

75%

Jablonec II 2+ goals

40%

Jablonec II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Přepeře (draw refunded)

57%

Jablonec II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přepeře at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.49 · 49 matches

Jablonec II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přepeře attack 1.76 + Jablonec II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.64

Jablonec II attack 1.26 + Přepeře defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Přepeře scores more

44%

level

24%

Jablonec II scores more

32%

Přepeře at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Přepeře will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff