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Jablonec II vs Přepeře — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Jablonec II
Jablonec II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Přepeře
Přepeře
11/4/20233. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 14Stadion Jiskra Mšeno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Jablonec II45%
×Draw23%
Přepeře32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jablonec II
1.83
Přepeře
1.50

Jablonec II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 48 away

creates per match

Jablonec II
1.64
Přepeře
1.35

allows per match

Jablonec II
1.64
Přepeře
2.02

finishing

Jablonec II+0.00on par
Přepeře+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jablonec II ↓

Přepeře →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jablonec II or draw
68%
Jablonec II or Přepeře
77%
Draw or Přepeře
55%

Winning margin

Jablonec II wins by 2+
25%
Přepeře wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jablonec II 1+ goals
84%
Jablonec II 2+ goals
54%
Jablonec II 3+ goals
28%
Přepeře 1+ goals
78%
Přepeře 2+ goals
44%
Přepeře 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jablonec II (draw refunded)
59%
Přepeře (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jablonec II at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 80 matches

Přepeře away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.02 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jablonec II attack 1.64 + Přepeře defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.83

Přepeře attack 1.35 + Jablonec II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jablonec II scores more
45%
level
23%
Přepeře scores more
32%

Jablonec II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jablonec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL B: Jablonec II 1–1 Přepeře

Jablonec II and Přepeře drew 1-1 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jiskra Mšeno in Jablonec nad Nisou.