Prat 1–3 Girona II: Result & Stats

Prat

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Girona II

A. Kerobyan 16' (pen)

Jastin García 82'

D. Camara 48'

Biel Farrés 42'

5/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 32Estadio Municipal Sagnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Prat28%

×Draw29%

Girona II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PratExpected goals in this matchGirona II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.22

Prat

0.94

Girona II

1.22

Girona II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 78 away

0.97

creates per match

1.23

1.21

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Prat

0.97

Girona II

1.23

allows per match

Prat

1.21

Girona II

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prat+0.00on par

Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prat ↓

Girona II →

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Prat or draw

57%

Prat or Girona II

71%

Draw or Girona II

72%

Winning margin

Prat wins by 2+

10%

Girona II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Prat 1+ goals

61%

Prat 2+ goals

24%

Prat 3+ goals

Girona II 1+ goals

70%

Girona II 2+ goals

34%

Girona II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Prat (draw refunded)

40%

Girona II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prat at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prat attack 0.97 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Girona II attack 1.23 + Prat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Prat scores more

28%

level

29%

Girona II scores more

43%

Girona II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. KerobyanPenalty

42'

Biel Farrés

46'

Valentín Merchán← Ivan Torres

48'

D. Camara

61'

Miki Puerto← Álvaro

61'

Alejandro Pino← Ferrán Sarsanedas

61'

Carles Garrido← D. Camara

61'

Jastin García← Miguel Sánchez

73'

Javier García← Guillem Corominas

76'

Isaac Padilla← A. Kerobyan

82'

Jastin García

84'

Enric García← P. Ba

84'

Marc Aznar← Javi Sarasa

87'

J. Alvarez

87'

J. Alvarez

90+3'

W. Suzuki← Iker Almena

Prat

Girona

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Kerobyan

Maldonado

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

46'▲Valentín Merchán←▼Ivan Torres

61'▲Miki Puerto←▼Álvaro

61'▲Alejandro Pino←▼Ferrán Sarsanedas

73'▲Javier García←▼Guillem Corominas

76'▲Isaac Padilla←▼A. Kerobyan

Prat substitutes

MerchánPuertoPinoGarcíaPadilla

Manager: Sergi Mora

61'▲Carles Garrido←▼D. Camara

61'▲Jastin García←▼Miguel Sánchez

84'▲Enric García←▼P. Ba

84'▲Marc Aznar←▼Javi Sarasa

90+3'▲W. Suzuki←▼Iker Almena

Girona II substitutes

GarridoGarcíaGarcíaAznarSuzuki

Match Recap: Prat vs Girona II

Girona II beat Prat 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Kerobyan (16' pen), Biel Farrés (42'), D. Camara (48'), Jastin García (82').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sagnier in El Prat de Llobregat.

Prat vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Prat vs Girona II