Girona II 0–1 Prat: Result & Stats

Girona II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Prat

Miguel Fernández 62'

1/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Campo Municipal Riudarenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Girona II47%

×Draw26%

Prat27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Girona IIExpected goals in this matchPrat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.06

Girona II

1.50

Prat

1.06

Girona II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 34 away

1.72

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Girona II

1.72

Prat

1.00

allows per match

Girona II

1.13

Prat

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Girona II+0.00on par

Prat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Girona II ↓

Prat →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Girona II or draw

73%

Girona II or Prat

74%

Draw or Prat

53%

Winning margin

Girona II wins by 2+

24%

Prat wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Girona II 1+ goals

78%

Girona II 2+ goals

44%

Girona II 3+ goals

19%

Prat 1+ goals

65%

Prat 2+ goals

29%

Prat 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Girona II (draw refunded)

64%

Prat (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Girona II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

Prat away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Girona II attack 1.72 + Prat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Prat attack 1.00 + Girona II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Girona II scores more

47%

level

26%

Prat scores more

27%

Girona II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Miguel Sánchez← Kim Min-Su

62'

Miguel Fernández

67'

Ivan Torres← Guillem Corominas

67'

Isaac Padilla← Izan Maldonado

74'

Javi Sarasa← Enric García

74'

Sergi Solans← W. Suzuki

75'

Julen Álvarez← A. Kerobyan

75'

Alejandro Pino← Miguel Fernández

83'

Luka Managadze← Marc Alegre

84'

Miki Puerto← Yusef Lasgaa

Girona

Prat

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sergi Mora

60'▲Miguel Sánchez←▼Kim Min-Su

74'▲Javi Sarasa←▼Enric García

74'▲Sergi Solans←▼W. Suzuki

83'▲Luka Managadze←▼Marc Alegre

Girona II substitutes

SánchezSarasaSolansManagadze

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

67'▲Ivan Torres←▼Guillem Corominas

67'▲Isaac Padilla←▼Izan Maldonado

75'▲Julen Álvarez←▼A. Kerobyan

75'▲Alejandro Pino←▼Miguel Fernández

84'▲Miki Puerto←▼Yusef Lasgaa

Prat substitutes

TorresPadillaÁlvarezPinoPuerto

Match Recap: Girona II vs Prat

Prat beat Girona II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 7, 2024.

Goals: Miguel Fernández (62').

The match was played at Campo Municipal Riudarenes in Riudarenes.

Girona II vs Prat — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Girona II vs Prat