Prat 2–4 Atlètic Lleida: Result & Stats

Prat

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Atlètic Lleida

Miguel Fernández 90' (pen)

Javier García 22'

Wilber Hurtado 71' (pen), 50', 7'

S. Sidibe 37'

1/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadio Municipal Sagnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Prat25%

×Draw27%

Atlètic Lleida48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PratExpected goals in this matchAtlètic Lleida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.43

Prat

0.95

Atlètic Lleida

1.43

Atlètic Lleida creates 51% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

0.97

creates per match

1.65

1.21

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Prat

0.97

Atlètic Lleida

1.65

allows per match

Prat

1.21

Atlètic Lleida

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prat+0.00on par

Atlètic Lleida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prat ↓

Atlètic Lleida →

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Prat or draw

52%

Prat or Atlètic Lleida

73%

Draw or Atlètic Lleida

75%

Winning margin

Prat wins by 2+

Atlètic Lleida wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Prat 1+ goals

61%

Prat 2+ goals

25%

Prat 3+ goals

Atlètic Lleida 1+ goals

76%

Atlètic Lleida 2+ goals

42%

Atlètic Lleida 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Prat (draw refunded)

34%

Atlètic Lleida (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prat at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Atlètic Lleida away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prat attack 0.97 + Atlètic Lleida defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Atlètic Lleida attack 1.65 + Prat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Prat scores more

25%

level

27%

Atlètic Lleida scores more

48%

Atlètic Lleida at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Atlètic Lleida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Wilber Hurtado

22'

Javier García

37'

S. Sidibe

46'

Álex Sánchez← Julen Álvarez

50'

Wilber Hurtado

59'

Alex Plaza← David Adan

71'

Marc Font← Javier García

71'

Jordi Buyreu← Joel Bona

71'

Roger Alcalá← Víctor Villote

71'

Wilber HurtadoPenalty

75'

Boris Garrós← Nil Sauret

75'

Toni Vicente← Wilber Hurtado

81'

Salva Torreño← Pol Moles

83'

Marc Valés← Lluis Samso

83'

Sergi Quirós← Daouda Koné

90'

Miguel FernándezPenalty

Prat

Atlètic

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

46'▲Álex Sánchez←▼Julen Álvarez

59'▲Alex Plaza←▼David Adan

71'▲Marc Font←▼Javier García

71'▲Jordi Buyreu←▼Joel Bona

81'▲Salva Torreño←▼Pol Moles

Prat substitutes

SánchezPlazaFontBuyreuTorreño

Manager: Gabri

71'▲Roger Alcalá←▼Víctor Villote

75'▲Boris Garrós←▼Nil Sauret

75'▲Toni Vicente←▼Wilber Hurtado

83'▲Marc Valés←▼Lluis Samso

83'▲Sergi Quirós←▼Daouda Koné

Atlètic Lleida substitutes

AlcaláGarrósVicenteValésQuirós