Atlètic Lleida 6–0 Prat: Result & Stats

Atlètic Lleida

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Prat

5/10/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Camp de futbol Ramon Farrús

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Atlètic Lleida51%

×Draw26%

Prat23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlètic LleidaExpected goals in this matchPrat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.91

Atlètic Lleida

1.52

Prat

0.91

Atlètic Lleida creates 67% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.76

creates per match

1.00

0.82

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Atlètic Lleida

1.76

Prat

1.00

allows per match

Atlètic Lleida

0.82

Prat

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlètic Lleida+0.00on par

Prat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlètic Lleida ↓

Prat →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlètic Lleida or draw

77%

Atlètic Lleida or Prat

74%

Draw or Prat

49%

Winning margin

Atlètic Lleida wins by 2+

26%

Prat wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlètic Lleida 1+ goals

78%

Atlètic Lleida 2+ goals

45%

Atlètic Lleida 3+ goals

20%

Prat 1+ goals

60%

Prat 2+ goals

23%

Prat 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlètic Lleida (draw refunded)

69%

Prat (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlètic Lleida at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Prat away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlètic Lleida attack 1.76 + Prat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Prat attack 1.00 + Atlètic Lleida defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atlètic Lleida scores more

51%

level

26%

Prat scores more

23%

Atlètic Lleida at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlètic Lleida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff