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Praiense vs Oriental Lisboa — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Praiense
Praiense
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oriental Lisboa
Oriental Lisboa
3/7/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 19Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Praiense57%
×Draw27%
Oriental Lisboa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praiense
1.46
Oriental Lisboa
0.64

Praiense creates 128% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Praiense
1.55
Oriental Lisboa
0.82

allows per match

Praiense
0.45
Oriental Lisboa
1.36

finishing

Praiense+0.00on par
Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praiense ↓

Oriental Lisboa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Praiense or draw
84%
Praiense or Oriental Lisboa
73%
Draw or Oriental Lisboa
43%

Winning margin

Praiense wins by 2+
29%
Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Praiense 1+ goals
77%
Praiense 2+ goals
43%
Praiense 3+ goals
18%
Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals
47%
Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals
14%
Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Praiense (draw refunded)
78%
Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praiense at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Oriental Lisboa away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praiense attack 1.55 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oriental Lisboa attack 0.82 + Praiense defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Praiense scores more
57%
level
27%
Oriental Lisboa scores more
16%

Praiense at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Praiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Praiense vs Oriental Lisboa

Praiense beat Oriental Lisboa 3-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal da Praia da Vitória in Praia da Vitória, Açores.