Oriental Lisboa 0–2 Praiense: Result & Stats

Oriental Lisboa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Praiense

12/7/2020

Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 8Campo Engenheiro Carlos Salema

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Oriental Lisboa41%

×Draw30%

Praiense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Oriental LisboaExpected goals in this matchPraiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.91

Oriental Lisboa

1.14

Praiense

0.91

Oriental Lisboa creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.64

creates per match

0.73

1.09

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Oriental Lisboa

0.64

Praiense

0.73

allows per match

Oriental Lisboa

1.09

Praiense

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Praiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oriental Lisboa ↓

Praiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Oriental Lisboa or draw

71%

Oriental Lisboa or Praiense

70%

Draw or Praiense

59%

Winning margin

Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+

17%

Praiense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals

68%

Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals

32%

Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals

11%

Praiense 1+ goals

60%

Praiense 2+ goals

23%

Praiense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)

59%

Praiense (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oriental Lisboa at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Praiense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oriental Lisboa attack 0.64 + Praiense defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.14

Praiense attack 0.73 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Oriental Lisboa scores more

41%

level

30%

Praiense scores more

29%

Oriental Lisboa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oriental Lisboa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff