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Pradejón vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Pradejón
Pradejón
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
12/6/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Polideportivo Municipal Pradejón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Pradejón38%
×Draw26%
Casalarreina37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pradejón
1.39
Casalarreina
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 91 away

creates per match

Pradejón
1.20
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Pradejón
1.39
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Pradejón+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pradejón ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pradejón or draw
63%
Pradejón or Casalarreina
74%
Draw or Casalarreina
62%

Winning margin

Pradejón wins by 2+
17%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pradejón 1+ goals
75%
Pradejón 2+ goals
40%
Pradejón 3+ goals
16%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
74%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
39%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pradejón (draw refunded)
51%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pradejón at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 46 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pradejón attack 1.20 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Pradejón defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pradejón scores more
38%
level
26%
Casalarreina scores more
37%

Pradejón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pradejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pradejón vs Casalarreina

Casalarreina beat Pradejón 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Pradejón in Pradejón.