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Casalarreina vs Pradejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Casalarreina
Casalarreina
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pradejón
Pradejón
9/15/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio Municipal El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Casalarreina49%
×Draw23%
Pradejón29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casalarreina
1.86
Pradejón
1.38

Casalarreina creates 35% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 46 away

creates per match

Casalarreina
1.81
Pradejón
1.17

allows per match

Casalarreina
1.58
Pradejón
1.91

finishing

Casalarreina+0.00on par
Pradejón+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casalarreina ↓

Pradejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Casalarreina or draw
71%
Casalarreina or Pradejón
77%
Draw or Pradejón
51%

Winning margin

Casalarreina wins by 2+
27%
Pradejón wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Casalarreina 1+ goals
84%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
55%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
28%
Pradejón 1+ goals
75%
Pradejón 2+ goals
40%
Pradejón 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Casalarreina (draw refunded)
63%
Pradejón (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casalarreina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

Pradejón away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.91 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casalarreina attack 1.81 + Pradejón defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Pradejón attack 1.17 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Casalarreina scores more
49%
level
23%
Pradejón scores more
29%

Casalarreina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casalarreina vs Pradejón

Casalarreina beat Pradejón 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Soto in Haro.