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Pozuelo Alarcón vs Galapagar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Galapagar
Galapagar
4/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 31Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón42%
×Draw27%
Galapagar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.35
Galapagar
1.10

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 23% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 86 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
Galapagar
0.99

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
Galapagar
1.37

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
Galapagar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Galapagar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
70%
Pozuelo Alarcón or Galapagar
73%
Draw or Galapagar
58%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
20%
Galapagar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
74%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
39%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
15%
Galapagar 1+ goals
67%
Galapagar 2+ goals
30%
Galapagar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
58%
Galapagar (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Galapagar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.37 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Galapagar defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Galapagar attack 0.99 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
42%
level
27%
Galapagar scores more
30%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Galapagar

Pozuelo Alarcón and Galapagar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.