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Galapagar vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Galapagar
Galapagar
FT
7 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
4/16/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 29Estadio Galapagar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Galapagar42%
×Draw26%
Pozuelo Alarcón32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galapagar
1.42
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.20

Galapagar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 97 away

creates per match

Galapagar
1.55
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

Galapagar
1.44
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

Galapagar+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galapagar ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Galapagar or draw
68%
Galapagar or Pozuelo Alarcón
74%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
58%

Winning margin

Galapagar wins by 2+
20%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Galapagar 1+ goals
76%
Galapagar 2+ goals
41%
Galapagar 3+ goals
17%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
70%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
34%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Galapagar (draw refunded)
57%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galapagar at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galapagar attack 1.55 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + Galapagar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Galapagar scores more
42%
level
26%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
32%

Galapagar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Galapagar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Galapagar 7–1 Pozuelo Alarcón

Galapagar beat Pozuelo Alarcón 7-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Galapagar in Madrid.