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Pozuelo Alarcón vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
2/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón50%
×Draw26%
Colonia Moscardó24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.51
Colonia Moscardó
0.96

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 57% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 37 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
Colonia Moscardó
0.70

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
Colonia Moscardó
1.70

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Colonia Moscardó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
76%
Pozuelo Alarcón or Colonia Moscardó
74%
Draw or Colonia Moscardó
50%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
25%
Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
78%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
44%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
19%
Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
62%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
25%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
68%
Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.51

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
50%
level
26%
Colonia Moscardó scores more
24%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Colonia Moscardó

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Colonia Moscardó 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.