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Colonia Moscardó vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
9/9/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Colonia Moscardó34%
×Draw27%
Pozuelo Alarcón40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.21
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.34

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 97 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
60%
Colonia Moscardó or Pozuelo Alarcón
73%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
66%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
14%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
70%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
34%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
12%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
74%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
39%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
46%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
34%
level
27%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
40%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Colonia Moscardó 1–1 Pozuelo Alarcón

Colonia Moscardó and Pozuelo Alarcón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.