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Pozuelo Alarcón vs Atlético Pinto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
5 – 4
HT: 5 – 3
Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 7Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón45%
×Draw26%
Atlético Pinto29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.50
Atlético Pinto
1.16

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 29% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
Atlético Pinto
1.10

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
Atlético Pinto
1.69

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
Atlético Pinto+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Atlético Pinto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
71%
Pozuelo Alarcón or Atlético Pinto
74%
Draw or Atlético Pinto
55%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
22%
Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
78%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
44%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
69%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
61%
Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Atlético Pinto away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atlético Pinto attack 1.10 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
45%
level
26%
Atlético Pinto scores more
29%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozuelo Alarcón vs Atlético Pinto

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Atlético Pinto 5-4 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.