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Atlético Pinto vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Atlético Pinto
Atlético Pinto
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Estadio Amelia del Castillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Atlético Pinto44%
×Draw28%
Pozuelo Alarcón28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Pinto
1.31
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.98

Atlético Pinto creates 34% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 97 away

creates per match

Atlético Pinto
1.32
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

Atlético Pinto
1.00
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

Atlético Pinto+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Pinto ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Pinto or draw
72%
Atlético Pinto or Pozuelo Alarcón
72%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
56%

Winning margin

Atlético Pinto wins by 2+
20%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Atlético Pinto 1+ goals
73%
Atlético Pinto 2+ goals
38%
Atlético Pinto 3+ goals
14%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
62%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
26%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético Pinto (draw refunded)
61%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Pinto at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Pinto attack 1.32 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + Atlético Pinto defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Atlético Pinto scores more
44%
level
28%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
28%

Atlético Pinto at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Atlético Pinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Pinto 1 – 2 Pozuelo Alarcón

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Atlético Pinto 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Amelia del Castillo in Pinto.