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Pozuelo Alarcón vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón38%
×Draw27%
Alcobendas Sport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.31
Alcobendas Sport
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 117 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
64%
Pozuelo Alarcón or Alcobendas Sport
73%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
62%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
17%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
73%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
38%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
14%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
72%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
36%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
51%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
38%
level
27%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
36%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pozuelo Alarcón 0 – 0 Alcobendas Sport

Pozuelo Alarcón and Alcobendas Sport drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.